Bryophila raptricula
In 3 days ~10% in a week ~30%
Cryphia raptricula, the marbled gray, is a moth of the family Noctuidae. The species was first described by Michael Denis and Ignaz Schiffermüller in 1775. It is found over the Palearctic from the Atlantic Ocean to Central Asia, the Russian Far East including Ussuri and the Altai Mountains. Southward, it reaches the northern parts of the Sahara desert. It is found in central and south-east Europe.
M. raptricula Hbn. (= pomula Bkh.) (4b). Forewing elongate, grey with darker clouds; the lines obscure: inner outwardly oblique, twice curved: outer followed by a white crescent on submedian fold, beyond which is a black streak deflected through the fringe; stigmata inconspicuous, with dark edges; hindwing dull whitish, greyer towards margin. — The ab. carbonis Frr. (4b), as the name implies, is black. — ab. deceptricula Hbn. (4 c) has a pale brown horizontal streak from base of costa through cell to outer line and beyond, sometimes broken up into patches, and the inner margin darker. — oxybiensis Mill. (4c) is more uniformly grey than the type, while ab. striata Stgr. is distinguished by a black central streak: — lastly, ab. eretina Calb. (4c), much... Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
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More parks will be added in future updates.
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Marbled Grey sighting in Essen on a given day, based on 11 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 231st most-seen of the 434 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 10%, and over a week to about 30%, if each day is a fresh chance.
July and August
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Marbled Grey in Essen on a given day, against under 5% in September to June, the lowest months.
Yes
Of the 2 cities where we can rate Marbled Grey sightings, Essen has the highest daily chance: about 10%. Next come Vienna (Austria, under 5%).
Same family: Noctuidae
The closest relatives of the Marbled Grey that you can see in Essen (family Noctuidae, Cutworm Moths and Allies) are Large Yellow Underwing (about 20%), Silver Υ (about 10%) and Heart And Dart (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Marbled Grey is recorded against all the insects logged in Essen (11 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
