Vespa orientalis
In 3 days ~80% in a week >90%
The Oriental hornet (Vespa orientalis) is a social insect species of the family Vespidae. It can be found in Southwest Asia, Northeast Africa, the island of Madagascar (but no reports have been made of its presence on the island for many years), the Middle East, Central Asia, and parts of Southern Europe. Oriental hornets have also been found in a few isolated locations such as Mexico and Chile due to human introduction. The Oriental hornet lives in seasonal colonies consisting of caste system dominated by a queen. The hornet builds its nests underground and communicates using sound vibrations. The hornet has a yellow stripe on its cuticle (exoskeleton), which can absorb sunlight to generate a small electrical potential, and this might help supply energy for digging. The adult hornet eats nectar and fruits and scavenges for insects and animal proteins to feed to its young. Because they are scavengers, the hornets may also serve as a transmitter of disease following consumption of infected plants. The hornets are a primary pest to honey bees, attacking bee colonies to obtain honey and animal proteins. The sting of an Oriental hornet can be quite painful to humans and some humans are allergic to stings. Wikipedia →
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More parks will be added in future updates.
Likely
About 40% of wildlife watchers report an Oriental Hornet sighting in Izmir on a given day, based on 54 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the most-seen of the 50 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 80%, and over a week to over 90%, if each day is a fresh chance.
November
In that month about 80% of wildlife watchers report an Oriental Hornet in Izmir on a given day, against under 5% in March and April, the lowest months. That is one of Izmir's wettest months, with about 80 mm of rain against almost none in July.
4th of 21
Of the 21 cities where we can rate Oriental Hornet sightings, Izmir ranks 4th at about 40%. The best odds are in Naples (Italy, about 70%), Mashhad (Iran, about 50%) and Dushanbe (Tajikistan, about 40%).
Same order: Hymenoptera
The closest relatives of the Oriental Hornet that you can see in Izmir (order Hymenoptera, Ants, Bees, Wasps, and Sawflies) are European Paper Wasp (about 10%), Blue-Eyed Ensign Wasp (about 10%) and Buff-Tailed Bumble Bee (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Oriental Hornet is recorded against all the insects logged in Izmir (54 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
