Lithophane leautieri
In 3 days ~20% in a week ~40%
Lithophane leautieri, the Blair's shoulder-knot, is a moth of the family Noctuidae. It is found in Europe. It originated from the area surrounding the Mediterranean Sea, but gradually moved north. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|
More parks will be added in future updates.
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | London | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 3 | Birmingham | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 4 | Manchester | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Blair's Shoulder-Knot sighting in London on a given day, based on 111 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 381st most-seen of the 1504 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 20%, and over a week to about 40%, if each day is a fresh chance.
October
In that month about 30% of wildlife watchers report a Blair's Shoulder-Knot in London on a given day, against under 5% in December to August, the lowest months.
Among the best
Of the 4 cities where we can rate Blair's Shoulder-Knot sightings, London ranks 2nd at about 10%, level with the leaders once rounded. The best odds are in Liverpool (United Kingdom, about 10%).
Same family: Noctuidae
The closest relatives of the Blair's Shoulder-Knot that you can see in London (family Noctuidae, Cutworm Moths and Allies) are Large Yellow Underwing (about 30%), Heart And Dart (about 20%) and Shuttle-Shaped Dart (about 20%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Blair's Shoulder-Knot is recorded against all the insects logged in London (111 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
