What are the chances of seeing a Variable Tenthredo in Manchester?
Rare
Under 5% of wildlife watchers report a Variable Tenthredo sighting in Manchester on a given day, based on 6 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 387th most-seen of the 458 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 10%, and over a week to about 30%, if each day is a fresh chance.
When is the best time to see a Variable Tenthredo in Manchester?
May and June
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Variable Tenthredo in Manchester on a given day, against under 5% in July to April, the lowest months.
Is Manchester the best place to see a Variable Tenthredo?
Yes
Of the 3 cities where we can rate Variable Tenthredo sightings, Manchester has the highest daily chance: under 5%. Next come Birmingham (United Kingdom, under 5%) and Moscow (Russia, under 5%).
Where does the Variable Tenthredo sighting chance come from?
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Variable Tenthredo is recorded against all the insects logged in Manchester (6 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.