Nymphalis xanthomelas
In 3 days ~30% in a week ~60%
Nymphalis xanthomelas, the scarce tortoiseshell, is a species of nymphalid butterfly found in eastern Europe and Asia. This butterfly is also referred as yellow-legged tortoiseshell or large tortoiseshell (however, in Europe, "large tortoiseshell" is usually reserved for Nymphalis polychloros).
Upperside rich orange yellow, forewing has costal margin dusky black on the basal half flecked with brown; two oval black spots in cell, a quadrate subcostal black patch just beyond the discocellulars, a second more oblique irregular black patch beyond this, and three large oval discal black spots, with a smaller dusky patch beyond the lowest spot. Hindwing uniform, with a large subcostal black patch. Forewings and hindwings with a common sinuous transverse subterminal black band, and a terminal dusky band flecked with golden brown; the black subterminal band on the hindwing with an outer border of blue lunules margined outwardly by a slender black line; the forewing just below the costa, between the black patches beyond the cell and between the outer black patch and subterminal band, prominently pale yellow. In the female, an incomplete series of yellow lunules also borders... Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biebrza National Park | 🇵🇱 Poland | |
| 2 | Taroko National Park | 🇹🇼 Taiwan |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nizhny Novgorod | 🇷🇺 Russia | |
| 2 | Novosibirsk | 🇷🇺 Russia | |
| 3 | Moscow | 🇷🇺 Russia | |
| 4 | Kazan | 🇷🇺 Russia | |
| 5 | Nagoya | 🇯🇵 Japan | |
| 6 | Almaty | 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan | |
| 7 | Yekaterinburg | 🇷🇺 Russia | |
| 8 | Helsinki | 🇫🇮 Finland | |
| 9 | Saint Petersburg | 🇷🇺 Russia | |
| 10 | Kyiv | 🇺🇦 Ukraine |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Scarce Tortoiseshell sighting in Moscow on a given day, based on 572 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 6th most-seen of the 1111 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 30%, and over a week to about 60%, if each day is a fresh chance.
March
In that month about 30% of wildlife watchers report a Scarce Tortoiseshell in Moscow on a given day, against under 5% in October to February, the lowest months.
Between 9 am and noon
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Scarce Tortoiseshell sightings with a recorded time, and about 9 in 10 of them come between 6 am and 6 pm: it is a daytime animal.
3rd of 11
Of the 11 cities where we can rate Scarce Tortoiseshell sightings, Moscow ranks 3rd at about 10%. The best odds are in Nizhny Novgorod (Russia, about 20%) and Novosibirsk (Russia, about 10%).
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Scarce Tortoiseshell is recorded against all the insects logged in Moscow (572 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
