Eligma narcissus
In 3 days ~20% in a week ~30%
Eligma narcissus, the ailanthus defoliator, is a moth in the family Nolidae. The species was first described by Pieter Cramer in 1775. It is found in tropical Asia and the subtropics of China, India, Sri Lanka, Java and Southeast Islands.
Head and thorax greyish brown and spotted in black. Abdomen bright yellow with dorsal and lateral series of black spots. Forelegs are grey brown and spotted with black. Midlegs and hindlegs are yellowish with black spots on tibia. Tarsi grey brown. Forewings are greyish brown where costal area is with an olive tinge. There is an irregular and diffused curved white fascia from base to apex. Some basal and sub-basal black spots. A waved black line runs from lower angle of cell to inner margin. A submarginal series of black spots, those towards outer angle conjoined into streaks. Hindwings are bright yellow. Apical area is black, suffused or streaked with dark blue, and terminating at vein 1b. Cilia whitish at tips.
The larvae feed on Canarium and Ailanthus species, including A. fordii. They are also found to feed on Ailanthus altissima, Amygdalus persica, and Toona sinensis from China. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taroko National Park | 🇹🇼 Taiwan |
More parks will be added in future updates.
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report an Ailanthus Defoliator sighting in Osaka on a given day, based on 12 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 179th most-seen of the 352 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 20%, and over a week to about 30%, if each day is a fresh chance.
December
In that month about 20% of wildlife watchers report an Ailanthus Defoliator in Osaka on a given day, against under 5% in January to July, the lowest months. That is one of Osaka's driest months, with about 70 mm of rain against 200 mm in July.
Between 9 pm and midnight
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Ailanthus Defoliator sightings with a recorded time, and about half of them come between 6 am and 6 pm: it is seen both by day and at night.
8th of 11
Of the 11 cities where we can rate Ailanthus Defoliator sightings, Osaka ranks 8th at about 10%. The best odds are in Thiruvananthapuram (India, about 20%), Nagoya (Japan, about 10%) and Qingdao (China, about 10%).
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Ailanthus Defoliator is recorded against all the insects logged in Osaka (12 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
