Spodoptera abyssinia
In 3 days ~20% in a week ~30%
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|
More parks will be added in future updates.
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pretoria | 🇿🇦 South Africa |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Black-U Dumpling sighting in Pretoria on a given day, based on 7 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 175th most-seen of the 274 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 20%, and over a week to about 30%, if each day is a fresh chance.
March, August and October–December
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Black-U Dumpling in Pretoria on a given day, against under 5% in January–February, April–July and September, the lowest months.
Only Pretoria, in our data
Pretoria is the only city on Wallace's Line with enough records to rate Black-U Dumpling sightings: about 10% of wildlife watchers there report one on a given day.
Same family: Noctuidae
The closest relatives of the Black-U Dumpling that you can see in Pretoria (family Noctuidae, Cutworm Moths and Allies) are Lily Borer (about 10%), Slender Burnished Brass (about 10%) and Cotton Bollworm Moth (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Black-U Dumpling is recorded against all the insects logged in Pretoria (7 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
