What are the chances of seeing a Birch Sober in Saint Petersburg?
Rare
Under 5% of wildlife watchers report a Birch Sober sighting in Saint Petersburg on a given day, based on 48 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 83rd most-seen of the 448 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 10%, and over a week to about 30%, if each day is a fresh chance.
When is the best time to see a Birch Sober in Saint Petersburg?
July and August
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Birch Sober in Saint Petersburg on a given day, against under 5% in September to June, the lowest months. Those are among Saint Petersburg's wettest months, with about 100 mm of rain a month against 40 mm in February.
Is Saint Petersburg the best place to see a Birch Sober?
Yes
Of the 3 cities where we can rate Birch Sober sightings, Saint Petersburg has the highest daily chance: under 5%. Next come Helsinki (Finland, under 5%) and Moscow (Russia, under 5%).
Where does the Birch Sober sighting chance come from?
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Birch Sober is recorded against all the insects logged in Saint Petersburg (48 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.