Eristalis cerealis
In 3 days ~10% in a week ~20%
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|
More parks will be added in future updates.
Rare
Under 5% of wildlife watchers report an Eristalis cerealis sighting in Tokyo on a given day, based on 22 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 416th most-seen of the 1013 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 10%, and over a week to about 20%, if each day is a fresh chance.
September
In that month about 10% of wildlife watchers report an Eristalis cerealis in Tokyo on a given day, against under 5% in October to August, the lowest months. That is one of Tokyo's wettest months, with about 210 mm of rain against 75 mm in February.
Between 9 am and noon
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Eristalis cerealis sightings with a recorded time, and about 8 in 10 of them come between 6 am and 6 pm: it is a daytime animal.
8th of 9
Of the 9 cities where we can rate Eristalis cerealis sightings, Tokyo ranks 8th at under 5%. The best odds are in Kathmandu (Nepal, about 20%), Kunming (China, about 20%) and Wuhan (China, about 10%).
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Eristalis cerealis is recorded against all the insects logged in Tokyo (22 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
