Palpita nigropunctalis
In 3 days ~20% in a week ~40%
Palpita nigropunctalis, the lilac pyralid, is a moth of the family Crambidae. It is found in eastern Asia, including China (Hebei, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Zhejiang, Henan, Hubei, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Shaanxi), Taiwan, Korea, Japan and the Russian Far East (Siberia, Kuriles, Sakhalin).
The wingspan is 29–31 mm. Adults are on wing from April to October. Adults are on wing from late March to early April, from mid May to early June and from early September to mid November in Japan. There are three generations per year.
The larvae feed on the flowers, fruits and leaves of Ligustrum species, including Ligustrum japonicum and Ligustrum lucidum. They have also been recorded on Fraxinus mandschurica. First-instar larvae occur three times per year in Japan (in late April to early May, mid to late September and early to mid October). Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
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More parks will be added in future updates.
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Lilac Pyralid sighting in Tokyo on a given day, based on 146 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 104th most-seen of the 1013 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 20%, and over a week to about 40%, if each day is a fresh chance.
March
In that month about 20% of wildlife watchers report a Lilac Pyralid in Tokyo on a given day, against under 5% in June–August and December–January, the lowest months.
Among the best
Of the 4 cities where we can rate Lilac Pyralid sightings, Tokyo ranks 4th at about 10%, level with the leaders once rounded. The best odds are in Nagoya (Japan, about 10%), Sendai (Japan, about 10%) and Osaka (Japan, about 10%).
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Lilac Pyralid is recorded against all the insects logged in Tokyo (146 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
