Papilio demetrius
In 3 days ~20% in a week ~40%
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|
More parks will be added in future updates.
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Papilio demetrius sighting in Tokyo on a given day, based on 98 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 148th most-seen of the 1013 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 20%, and over a week to about 40%, if each day is a fresh chance.
April to October
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Papilio demetrius in Tokyo on a given day, against under 5% in November to March, the lowest months.
4th of 4
Of the 4 cities where we can rate Papilio demetrius sightings, Tokyo ranks 4th at about 10%. The best odds are in Nagoya (Japan, about 20%), Sendai (Japan, about 10%) and Osaka (Japan, about 10%).
Same genus: Papilio
The closest relatives of the Papilio demetrius that you can see in Tokyo (genus Papilio, Common Swallowtails) are Chinese Yellow Swallowtail (about 20%), Old World Swallowtail (about 10%) and Japanese Peacock Swallowtail (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Papilio demetrius is recorded against all the insects logged in Tokyo (98 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
