Conistra vaccinii
In 3 days ~20% in a week ~40%
Conistra vaccinii, the chestnut, is a moth of the family Noctuidae. The species was first described by Carl Linnaeus in 1761. It is distributed throughout Europe, North Africa and east through the Palearctic to Siberia. The species occurs on some Mediterranean islands (Balearics, Corsica, and Sardinia), in Northern Fennoscandia, and most of Europe except for southern Spain. The range extends south from Morocco in the west to Mediterranean North Africa, through Anatolia to Turkestan and Western and Central Siberia. In the German central uplands, it rises to about 1200 meters.
The wingspan is 28–36 mm. Pattern and colouring are extremely variable. The colour varies from dove grey to dark grey brown, with light brown, light red, reddish-brown to black-brown markings. This has led to the distinction of formae (forms). The apex of the front wing is slightly concave. The head and thorax are coloured mostly according to the wing colour; the abdomen is partially or completely reddish brown. The inner and outer, serrated crossbars are usually darker than the colour and more or less clearly defined. These are often white lined specimens with much darker crossbars... Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Snowdonia National Park | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a The Chestnut sighting in Bavarian Forest National Park on a given day, based on 15 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data from 2019 to 2026. It is the 377th most-seen of the 1115 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 20%, and over a week to about 40%, if each day is a fresh chance.
March and October
In those months about 20% of wildlife watchers report a The Chestnut in Bavarian Forest National Park on a given day, against under 5% in May–August and November–January, the lowest months.
Between 7 and 10 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most The Chestnut sightings with a recorded time, and about 6 in 10 of them come between 6 am and 6 pm: it is seen both by day and at night.
Among the best
Of the 2 parks where we can rate The Chestnut sightings, Bavarian Forest National Park ranks 2nd at about 10%, level with the leaders once rounded. The best odds are in Snowdonia National Park (United Kingdom, about 10%).
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the The Chestnut is recorded against all the insects logged in Bavarian Forest National Park (15 verified sightings from 2019 to 2026), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
