Hoplodrina octogenaria
In 3 days ~10% in a week ~30%
Hoplodrina octogenaria, the uncertain, is a moth of the family Noctuidae. It is found in the Palearctic realm (Europe, Russia, Turkey, Transcaucasia, Siberia, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Altai, north Mongolia, North Korea, and north China). Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vanoise National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 2 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 3 | Wadden Sea National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | London | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 3 | Manchester | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 4 | Birmingham | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 5 | Helsinki | 🇫🇮 Finland | |
| 6 | Moscow | 🇷🇺 Russia |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a The Uncertain sighting in Bavarian Forest National Park on a given day, based on 8 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data from 2019 to 2026. It is the 727th most-seen of the 1115 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 10%, and over a week to about 30%, if each day is a fresh chance.
June and July
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a The Uncertain in Bavarian Forest National Park on a given day, against under 5% in August to May, the lowest months.
Between 11 pm and 2 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most The Uncertain sightings with a recorded time, and about 8 in 10 of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is mostly seen at night.
Among the best
Of the 3 parks where we can rate The Uncertain sightings, Bavarian Forest National Park ranks 2nd at about 10%, level with the leaders once rounded. The best odds are in Vanoise National Park (France, about 10%).
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the The Uncertain is recorded against all the insects logged in Bavarian Forest National Park (8 verified sightings from 2019 to 2026), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
