Abrostola tripartita
In 3 days ~20% in a week ~40%
Abrostola tripartita (the spectacle) is a moth of the family Noctuidae. It is found throughout much of the Palearctic realm, including most of Europe (except for Iceland), as well as Russia, Siberia, the Amur region, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Snowdonia National Park | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom |
More parks will be added in future updates.
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Birmingham | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 3 | London | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 4 | Manchester | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 5 | Nizhny Novgorod | 🇷🇺 Russia |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a The Spectacle sighting in Birmingham on a given day, based on 24 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 309th most-seen of the 811 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 20%, and over a week to about 40%, if each day is a fresh chance.
May to August
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a The Spectacle in Birmingham on a given day, against under 5% in September to April, the lowest months.
Between 8 and 11 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most The Spectacle sightings with a recorded time, and about 9 in 10 of them come between 6 am and 6 pm: it is a daytime animal.
2nd of 5
Of the 5 cities where we can rate The Spectacle sightings, Birmingham ranks 2nd at about 10%. The best odds are in Liverpool (United Kingdom, about 20%).
Same family: Noctuidae
The closest relatives of the The Spectacle that you can see in Birmingham (family Noctuidae, Cutworm Moths and Allies) are Large Yellow Underwing (about 20%), Silver Υ (about 20%) and Knot Grass Moth (about 20%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the The Spectacle is recorded against all the insects logged in Birmingham (24 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
