Polybia paulista
In 3 days ~20% in a week ~40%
Polybia paulista is a species of eusocial wasp occurring in Brazil, Paraguay, and Argentina. The venom of P. paulista contains a peptide with potential use as a chemotherapeutic substance named Polybia-MP1. This peptide kills cancerous cells while leaving healthy cells intact.
Polybia paulista are found in tropical areas of Argentina, Paraguay and are prevalent in Brazil, specifically São Paulo. Nesting and colonization tends to occur in areas where they have protection from weathering. There can be up to three colonies in the same location, and swarms are present periodically. Initial development of the nest begins with swarming or absconding in which the first comb is used to fix the nest to a substrate. The first comb does have the development of envelopes but no eggs are found, due to the low survival rate. During this period there is a large percentage of the colony on the exterior of the nest due to the lack of available space inside the nest. This creates a tight cluster of wasps around the nest, which limits access of the nest to predators, such as ants. The swarm on the exterior of the nest is no longer present around the 10 day period. This time can fluctuate... Wikipedia →
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More parks will be added in future updates.
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Polybia paulista sighting in Brasilia on a given day, based on 9 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 44th most-seen of the 102 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 20%, and over a week to about 40%, if each day is a fresh chance.
December
In that month about 20% of wildlife watchers report a Polybia paulista in Brasilia on a given day, against under 5% in January, April, June and October–November, the lowest months. That is one of Brasilia's wettest months, with about 220 mm of rain against almost none in July.
Among the best
Of the 4 cities where we can rate Polybia paulista sightings, Brasilia ranks 3rd at about 10%, level with the leaders once rounded. The best odds are in Campinas (Brazil, about 10%) and São Paulo (Brazil, about 10%).
Same genus: Polybia
The closest relatives of the Polybia paulista that you can see in Brasilia (genus Polybia, Long-waisted Honey Wasps) are Polybia ignobilis (about 10%) and Polybia fastidiosuscula (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Polybia paulista is recorded against all the insects logged in Brasilia (9 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
