Cerynea thermesialis
In 3 days ~10% in a week ~30%
Cerynea thermesialis, the hot snout, is a species of moth in the family Erebidae first described by Francis Walker in 1866. It is found throughout subtropical Africa, from Sierra Leone to Madagascar; and from Kenya to South Africa. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gorongosa National Park | 🇲🇿 Mozambique | |
| 2 | Kruger National Park | 🇿🇦 South Africa |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Durban | 🇿🇦 South Africa |
Rare
Under 5% of wildlife watchers report a Hot Snout sighting in Durban on a given day, based on 10 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 224th most-seen of the 401 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 10%, and over a week to about 30%, if each day is a fresh chance.
January–March, May and November
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Hot Snout in Durban on a given day, against under 5% in April, June–October and December, the lowest months.
Between 6 and 9 pm
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Hot Snout sightings with a recorded time, and about 8 in 10 of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is mostly seen at night.
Only Durban, in our data
Durban is the only city on Wallace's Line with enough records to rate Hot Snout sightings: under 5% of wildlife watchers there report one on a given day.
Same family: Noctuidae
The closest relatives of the Hot Snout that you can see in Durban (family Noctuidae, Cutworm Moths and Allies) are Lily Borer (about 10%), Cotton Bollworm Moth (about 10%) and Mediterranean Brocade (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Hot Snout is recorded against all the insects logged in Durban (10 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
