Scopula nigrinotata
In 3 days ~30% in a week ~60%
Scopula nigrinotata is a species of moth in the family Geometridae. It is found in Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Sudan, Uganda and Zimbabwe. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kruger National Park | 🇿🇦 South Africa |
More parks will be added in future updates.
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harare | 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe | |
| 2 | Johannesburg | 🇿🇦 South Africa | |
| 3 | Pretoria | 🇿🇦 South Africa | |
| 4 | Durban | 🇿🇦 South Africa |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Black Wave sighting in Harare on a given day, based on 12 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 18th most-seen of the 93 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 30%, and over a week to about 60%, if each day is a fresh chance.
December and January
In those months about 30% of wildlife watchers report a Black Wave in Harare on a given day, against under 5% in May and July–November, the lowest months. Those are among Harare's wettest months, with about 190 mm of rain a month against almost none in August.
Between 5 and 8 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Black Wave sightings with a recorded time, and about 6 in 10 of them come between 6 am and 6 pm: it is most active around dawn and dusk.
Yes
Of the 4 cities where we can rate Black Wave sightings, Harare has the highest daily chance: about 10%. Next come Johannesburg (South Africa, about 10%) and Pretoria (South Africa, about 10%).
Same family: Geometridae
The closest relatives of the Black Wave that you can see in Harare (family Geometridae, Geometer Moths) are Triple-Stripe Peacock (about 10%), Pallid Grey (about 10%) and Vestal (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Black Wave is recorded against all the insects logged in Harare (12 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
