Hoplodrina octogenaria
In 3 days ~10% in a week ~20%
Hoplodrina octogenaria, the uncertain, is a moth of the family Noctuidae. It is found in the Palearctic realm (Europe, Russia, Turkey, Transcaucasia, Siberia, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Altai, north Mongolia, North Korea, and north China). Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vanoise National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 2 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 3 | Wadden Sea National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | London | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 3 | Manchester | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 4 | Birmingham | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 5 | Helsinki | 🇫🇮 Finland | |
| 6 | Moscow | 🇷🇺 Russia |
Rare
Under 5% of wildlife watchers report a The Uncertain sighting in Helsinki on a given day, based on 5 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 732nd most-seen of the 838 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 10%, and over a week to about 20%, if each day is a fresh chance.
July
In that month about 10% of wildlife watchers report a The Uncertain in Helsinki on a given day, against under 5% in August to June, the lowest months.
Between 11 pm and 2 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most The Uncertain sightings with a recorded time, and about 8 in 10 of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is mostly seen at night.
5th of 6
Of the 6 cities where we can rate The Uncertain sightings, Helsinki ranks 5th at under 5%. The best odds are in Liverpool (United Kingdom, about 10%), London (United Kingdom, about 10%) and Manchester (United Kingdom, about 10%).
Same family: Noctuidae
The closest relatives of the The Uncertain that you can see in Helsinki (family Noctuidae, Cutworm Moths and Allies) are Large Yellow Underwing (about 10%), Silver Υ (about 10%) and Antler Moth (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the The Uncertain is recorded against all the insects logged in Helsinki (5 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
