Scopula nigrinotata
In 3 days ~30% in a week ~60%
Scopula nigrinotata is a species of moth in the family Geometridae. It is found in Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Sudan, Uganda and Zimbabwe. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kruger National Park | 🇿🇦 South Africa |
More parks will be added in future updates.
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harare | 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe | |
| 2 | Johannesburg | 🇿🇦 South Africa | |
| 3 | Pretoria | 🇿🇦 South Africa | |
| 4 | Durban | 🇿🇦 South Africa |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Black Wave sighting in Johannesburg on a given day, based on 34 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 40th most-seen of the 213 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 30%, and over a week to about 60%, if each day is a fresh chance.
February
In that month about 20% of wildlife watchers report a Black Wave in Johannesburg on a given day, against under 5% in June and July, the lowest months. That is one of Johannesburg's wettest months, with about 80 mm of rain against almost none in July.
Between 5 and 8 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Black Wave sightings with a recorded time, and about 6 in 10 of them come between 6 am and 6 pm: it is most active around dawn and dusk.
Among the best
Of the 4 cities where we can rate Black Wave sightings, Johannesburg ranks 2nd at about 10%, level with the leaders once rounded. The best odds are in Harare (Zimbabwe, about 10%).
Same family: Geometridae
The closest relatives of the Black Wave that you can see in Johannesburg (family Geometridae, Geometer Moths) are Vestal (about 10%), Triple-Stripe Peacock (about 10%) and Inoffensive Vestal (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Black Wave is recorded against all the insects logged in Johannesburg (34 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
