What are the chances of seeing a Blackjack Fly in Lisbon?
Rare
Under 5% of wildlife watchers report a Blackjack Fly sighting in Lisbon on a given day, based on 5 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 405th most-seen of the 441 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 10%, and over a week to about 20%, if each day is a fresh chance.
When is the best time to see a Blackjack Fly in Lisbon?
April
In that month about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Blackjack Fly in Lisbon on a given day, against under 5% in May to March, the lowest months.
Is Lisbon the best place to see a Blackjack Fly?
Among the best
Of the 5 cities where we can rate Blackjack Fly sightings, Lisbon ranks 3rd at under 5%, level with the leaders once rounded. The best odds are in Auckland (New Zealand, under 5%) and Hong Kong (China, under 5%).
Where does the Blackjack Fly sighting chance come from?
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Blackjack Fly is recorded against all the insects logged in Lisbon (5 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.