Caradrina morpheus
In 3 days ~10% in a week ~20%
Caradrina morpheus, the mottled rustic, is a moth of the superfamily Noctuoidea. The species was first described by Johann Siegfried Hufnagel in 1766. It is found across the Palearctic from northern Europe to Siberia, Amur and Korea. Also in Armenia and Turkestan. It was accidentally introduced on both the east and west coasts of Canada and is so far reported in the east from New Brunswick to Ontario, and in the west from British Columbia.
The wingspan is 32–38 mm. The length of the forewings is 13–16 mm. Forewing dull dark fuscous with a greyish tinge; inner and outer lines obscure, double, the arms far apart; subterminal line grey, with dark suffusion on inner side; orbicular and reniform cloudy fuscous, the latter with a slight fulvous stain on its outer edge at middle; hindwing dull whitish; the cellspot, the veins towards termen, and a slight subterminal line grey. Diagnostic features: forewings may be pale brown or darker brown, forewings may have a glossy appearance; the darker stigmata clearly defined, antemedian line is dentate; postmedian line is poorly defined; subterminal line pale with a darker mottled suffusion; termen with dark lunules between the veins... Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wadden Sea National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany |
More parks will be added in future updates.
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Kyiv | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | |
| 3 | Helsinki | 🇫🇮 Finland | |
| 4 | Nizhny Novgorod | 🇷🇺 Russia | |
| 5 | Birmingham | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 6 | London | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 7 | Portland | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 8 | Vancouver | 🇨🇦 Canada | |
| 9 | Moscow | 🇷🇺 Russia |
Rare
Under 5% of wildlife watchers report a Mottled Rustic sighting in London on a given day, based on 18 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 821st most-seen of the 1504 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 10%, and over a week to about 20%, if each day is a fresh chance.
June
In that month about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Mottled Rustic in London on a given day, against under 5% in July to May, the lowest months.
Between 5 and 8 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Mottled Rustic sightings with a recorded time, and about half of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is most active around dawn and dusk.
6th of 9
Of the 9 cities where we can rate Mottled Rustic sightings, London ranks 6th at under 5%. The best odds are in Liverpool (United Kingdom, about 10%), Kyiv (Ukraine, under 5%) and Helsinki (Finland, under 5%).
Same genus: Caradrina
The closest relatives of the Mottled Rustic that you can see in London (genus Caradrina) are Pale Mottled Willow Moth (about 20%) and Clancy's Rustic (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Mottled Rustic is recorded against all the insects logged in London (18 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
