Hoplodrina octogenaria
In 3 days ~20% in a week ~50%
Hoplodrina octogenaria, the uncertain, is a moth of the family Noctuidae. It is found in the Palearctic realm (Europe, Russia, Turkey, Transcaucasia, Siberia, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Altai, north Mongolia, North Korea, and north China). Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vanoise National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 2 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 3 | Wadden Sea National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | London | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 3 | Manchester | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 4 | Birmingham | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 5 | Helsinki | 🇫🇮 Finland | |
| 6 | Moscow | 🇷🇺 Russia |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a The Uncertain sighting in London on a given day, based on 374 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 239th most-seen of the 1504 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 20%, and over a week to about 50%, if each day is a fresh chance.
July
In that month about 20% of wildlife watchers report a The Uncertain in London on a given day, against under 5% in August to May, the lowest months.
Between 11 pm and 2 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most The Uncertain sightings with a recorded time, and about 8 in 10 of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is mostly seen at night.
Among the best
Of the 6 cities where we can rate The Uncertain sightings, London ranks 2nd at about 10%, level with the leaders once rounded. The best odds are in Liverpool (United Kingdom, about 10%).
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the The Uncertain is recorded against all the insects logged in London (374 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
