Lithophane leautieri
In 3 days ~10% in a week ~20%
Lithophane leautieri, the Blair's shoulder-knot, is a moth of the family Noctuidae. It is found in Europe. It originated from the area surrounding the Mediterranean Sea, but gradually moved north. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|
More parks will be added in future updates.
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | London | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 3 | Birmingham | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 4 | Manchester | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom |
Rare
Under 5% of wildlife watchers report a Blair's Shoulder-Knot sighting in Manchester on a given day, based on 6 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 421st most-seen of the 458 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 10%, and over a week to about 20%, if each day is a fresh chance.
October
In that month about 20% of wildlife watchers report a Blair's Shoulder-Knot in Manchester on a given day, against under 5% in December to September, the lowest months.
4th of 4
Of the 4 cities where we can rate Blair's Shoulder-Knot sightings, Manchester ranks 4th at under 5%. The best odds are in Liverpool (United Kingdom, about 10%), London (United Kingdom, about 10%) and Birmingham (United Kingdom, under 5%).
Same family: Noctuidae
The closest relatives of the Blair's Shoulder-Knot that you can see in Manchester (family Noctuidae, Cutworm Moths and Allies) are Large Yellow Underwing (about 30%), Angle Shades (about 20%) and Silver Υ (about 20%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Blair's Shoulder-Knot is recorded against all the insects logged in Manchester (6 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
