Ochropleura plecta
In 3 days ~30% in a week ~60%
The flame shoulder (Ochropleura plecta) is a moth of the family Noctuidae. The species was first described by Carl Linnaeus in 1761. It is distributed throughout the Palearctic from Ireland in the west to Siberia then Korea and Japan in the east.
The forewings of this species are reddish brown with a black streak interrupted by white stigmata and a creamy-yellow streak along the costa which gives the species its common name. The hindwings are pure white. The wingspan is 28–34 mm. Forewing red brown suffused with purple; costal streak broadly cream colour to outer line, sometimes red speckled; cell and a basal streak below median vein blackish or deep red; orbicular and reniform stigmata with bright pale rings and grey centres, the latter followed by a small black blotch; lines rarely visible; hindwing whitish; patagia red-brown; dorsum greyish fuscous, sometimes with basal half cream coloured, sometimes wholly cream coloured. The ab. unimacula Stgr. [now ssp.] from Spain has the orbicular stigma obsolete; — in ab. anderssoni Lampa from Scandinavia the forewing is blackish purple; in ab. glaucimacula Graes. from Amurland the stigmata are smaller... Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Snowdonia National Park | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Wadden Sea National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 3 | Pyrénées National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 4 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 5 | Cairngorms National Park | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Porto | 🇵🇹 Portugal | |
| 3 | Manchester | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 4 | London | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 5 | Birmingham | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 6 | Essen | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 7 | Turin | 🇮🇹 Italy | |
| 8 | Kyiv | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | |
| 9 | Berlin | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 10 | Hamburg | 🇩🇪 Germany |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Flame Shoulder Moth sighting in Manchester on a given day, based on 52 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 94th most-seen of the 458 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 30%, and over a week to about 60%, if each day is a fresh chance.
June and August
In those months about 20% of wildlife watchers report a Flame Shoulder Moth in Manchester on a given day, against under 5% in October to March, the lowest months.
Between 6 and 9 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Flame Shoulder Moth sightings with a recorded time, and about 6 in 10 of them come between 6 am and 6 pm: it is most active around dawn and dusk.
3rd of 14
Of the 14 cities where we can rate Flame Shoulder Moth sightings, Manchester ranks 3rd at about 10%. The best odds are in Liverpool (United Kingdom, about 40%) and Porto (Portugal, about 10%).
Same family: Noctuidae
The closest relatives of the Flame Shoulder Moth that you can see in Manchester (family Noctuidae, Cutworm Moths and Allies) are Large Yellow Underwing (about 30%), Angle Shades (about 20%) and Silver Υ (about 20%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Flame Shoulder Moth is recorded against all the insects logged in Manchester (52 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
