Hestina persimilis
In 3 days ~30% in a week ~50%
Hestina persimilis, the siren, is an East Palearctic species of siren butterfly (Apaturinae) found in western China, Simla to Assam, Orissa. The larva feeds on Celtis australis. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
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More parks will be added in future updates.
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Siren sighting in Osaka on a given day, based on 33 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 84th most-seen of the 352 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 30%, and over a week to about 50%, if each day is a fresh chance.
July
In that month about 20% of wildlife watchers report a Siren in Osaka on a given day, against under 5% in April and October, the lowest months. That is one of Osaka's wettest months, with about 200 mm of rain against 55 mm in January.
5th of 9
Of the 9 cities where we can rate Siren sightings, Osaka ranks 5th at about 10%. The best odds are in Hefei (China, about 20%), Nanjing (China, about 20%) and Nagoya (Japan, about 10%).
Same family: Nymphalidae
The closest relatives of the Siren that you can see in Osaka (family Nymphalidae, Brush-footed Butterflies) are Tropical Fritillary (about 30%), Dot-Dash Sailer (about 10%) and Asian Comma (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Siren is recorded against all the insects logged in Osaka (33 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
