Scopula nigrinotata
In 3 days ~30% in a week ~50%
Scopula nigrinotata is a species of moth in the family Geometridae. It is found in Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Sudan, Uganda and Zimbabwe. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kruger National Park | 🇿🇦 South Africa |
More parks will be added in future updates.
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harare | 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe | |
| 2 | Johannesburg | 🇿🇦 South Africa | |
| 3 | Pretoria | 🇿🇦 South Africa | |
| 4 | Durban | 🇿🇦 South Africa |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Black Wave sighting in Pretoria on a given day, based on 21 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 62nd most-seen of the 274 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 30%, and over a week to about 50%, if each day is a fresh chance.
March
In that month about 20% of wildlife watchers report a Black Wave in Pretoria on a given day, against under 5% in January, June and September–October, the lowest months.
Between 5 and 8 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Black Wave sightings with a recorded time, and about 6 in 10 of them come between 6 am and 6 pm: it is most active around dawn and dusk.
Among the best
Of the 4 cities where we can rate Black Wave sightings, Pretoria ranks 3rd at about 10%, level with the leaders once rounded. The best odds are in Harare (Zimbabwe, about 10%) and Johannesburg (South Africa, about 10%).
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Black Wave is recorded against all the insects logged in Pretoria (21 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
