What are the chances of seeing a Manduca afflicta in Rio de Janeiro?
Rare
Under 5% of wildlife watchers report a Manduca afflicta sighting in Rio de Janeiro on a given day, based on 5 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 136th most-seen of the 169 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 10%, and over a week to about 30%, if each day is a fresh chance.
When is the best time to see a Manduca afflicta in Rio de Janeiro?
March, June, September and December
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Manduca afflicta in Rio de Janeiro on a given day, against under 5% in January–February, April–May, July–August and October–November, the lowest months.
Is Rio de Janeiro the best place to see a Manduca afflicta?
Yes
Of the 3 cities where we can rate Manduca afflicta sightings, Rio de Janeiro has the highest daily chance: under 5%. Next come Buenos Aires (Argentina, under 5%) and São Paulo (Brazil, under 5%).
Where does the Manduca afflicta sighting chance come from?
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Manduca afflicta is recorded against all the insects logged in Rio de Janeiro (5 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.