What are the chances of seeing a White-Winged March Fly in San Francisco?
Rare
Under 5% of wildlife watchers report a White-Winged March Fly sighting in San Francisco on a given day, based on 116 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 139th most-seen of the 737 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 10%, and over a week to about 20%, if each day is a fresh chance.
When is the best time to see a White-Winged March Fly in San Francisco?
March and April
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a White-Winged March Fly in San Francisco on a given day, against under 5% in May to February, the lowest months.
Is San Francisco the best place to see a White-Winged March Fly?
Among the best
Of the 11 cities where we can rate White-Winged March Fly sightings, San Francisco ranks 2nd at under 5%, level with the leaders once rounded. The best odds are in Salt Lake City (United States, under 5%).
Where does the White-Winged March Fly sighting chance come from?
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the White-Winged March Fly is recorded against all the insects logged in San Francisco (116 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.