Cosmia affinis
In 3 days ~10% in a week ~20%
Cosmia affinis, the lesser-spotted pinion, is a moth of the family Noctuidae. It is found in central and southern Europe, north to Great Britain, Denmark, southern Sweden up to Saint Petersburg. East, its range extends through northern and Central Asia up to Japan. It is also found in north-western Africa. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 2 | Pyrénées National Park | 🇫🇷 France |
Rare
Under 5% of wildlife watchers report a Lesser-Spotted Pinion sighting in Tokyo on a given day, based on 7 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 817th most-seen of the 1013 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 10%, and over a week to about 20%, if each day is a fresh chance.
November
In that month about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Lesser-Spotted Pinion in Tokyo on a given day, against under 5% in December to October, the lowest months.
Between 10 pm and 1 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Lesser-Spotted Pinion sightings with a recorded time, and about 8 in 10 of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is mostly seen at night.
Among the best
Of the 3 cities where we can rate Lesser-Spotted Pinion sightings, Tokyo ranks 3rd at under 5%, level with the leaders once rounded. The best odds are in Kyiv (Ukraine, under 5%) and Paris (France, under 5%).
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Lesser-Spotted Pinion is recorded against all the insects logged in Tokyo (7 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
