What are the chances of seeing an Orthosia carnipennis in Tokyo?
Rare
Under 5% of wildlife watchers report an Orthosia carnipennis sighting in Tokyo on a given day, based on 17 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 482nd most-seen of the 1013 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 10%, and over a week to about 20%, if each day is a fresh chance.
When is the best time to see an Orthosia carnipennis in Tokyo?
March and April
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report an Orthosia carnipennis in Tokyo on a given day, against under 5% in May to February, the lowest months.
What time of day is best to see an Orthosia carnipennis?
Between 4 and 7 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Orthosia carnipennis sightings with a recorded time, and about 6 in 10 of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is most active around dawn and dusk.
Where else can you see an Orthosia carnipennis?
Only Tokyo, in our data
Tokyo is the only city on Wallace's Line with enough records to rate Orthosia carnipennis sightings: under 5% of wildlife watchers there report one on a given day.
Where does the Orthosia carnipennis sighting chance come from?
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Orthosia carnipennis is recorded against all the insects logged in Tokyo (17 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.