Hestina persimilis
In 3 days ~20% in a week ~40%
Hestina persimilis, the siren, is an East Palearctic species of siren butterfly (Apaturinae) found in western China, Simla to Assam, Orissa. The larva feeds on Celtis australis. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|
More parks will be added in future updates.
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Siren sighting in Tokyo on a given day, based on 124 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 124th most-seen of the 1013 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 20%, and over a week to about 40%, if each day is a fresh chance.
May to November
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Siren in Tokyo on a given day, against under 5% in December to April, the lowest months.
8th of 9
Of the 9 cities where we can rate Siren sightings, Tokyo ranks 8th at about 10%. The best odds are in Hefei (China, about 20%), Nanjing (China, about 20%) and Nagoya (Japan, about 10%).
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Siren is recorded against all the insects logged in Tokyo (124 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
