Lacanobia thalassina
In 3 days ~20% in a week ~40%
Lacanobia thalassina, the pale-shouldered brocade, is a moth of the family Noctuidae. It is found in Europe east across the Palearctic to the Russian Far East and Siberia. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Snowdonia National Park | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Cairngorms National Park | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 3 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Helsinki | 🇫🇮 Finland | |
| 2 | Nizhny Novgorod | 🇷🇺 Russia | |
| 3 | Kyiv | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | |
| 4 | Moscow | 🇷🇺 Russia |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Pale-Shouldered Brocade sighting in Cairngorms National Park on a given day, based on 16 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data from 2019 to 2026. It is the 165th most-seen of the 300 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 20%, and over a week to about 40%, if each day is a fresh chance.
May and June
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Pale-Shouldered Brocade in Cairngorms National Park on a given day, against under 5% in July to April, the lowest months.
Between 6 and 9 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Pale-Shouldered Brocade sightings with a recorded time, and about 9 in 10 of them come between 6 am and 6 pm: it is a daytime animal.
Among the best
Of the 3 parks where we can rate Pale-Shouldered Brocade sightings, Cairngorms National Park ranks 2nd at about 10%, level with the leaders once rounded. The best odds are in Snowdonia National Park (United Kingdom, about 10%).
Same family: Noctuidae
The closest relatives of the Pale-Shouldered Brocade that you can see in Cairngorms National Park (family Noctuidae, Cutworm Moths and Allies) are Large Yellow Underwing (about 20%), Antler Moth (about 20%) and Dark Arches (about 20%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Pale-Shouldered Brocade is recorded against all the insects logged in Cairngorms National Park (16 verified sightings from 2019 to 2026), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
