Acronicta afflicta
In 3 days ~10% in a week ~20%
Acronicta afflicta, the afflicted dagger moth, is a moth of the family Noctuidae. It is found in Canada (Nova Scotia, Quebec and Ontario), the United States (including Alabama, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Georgia, Maryland, New York and Ohio) as well as northern Mexico.
The wingspan is about 36 mm. Adults are on wing from May to September depending on the location. The larvae feed on various Quercus species. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|
More parks will be added in future updates.
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 2 | Dallas | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 3 | Houston | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 4 | New York City | 🇺🇸 United States |
Rare
Under 5% of wildlife watchers report an Afflicted Dagger sighting in Dallas on a given day, based on 26 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 573rd most-seen of the 1412 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 10%, and over a week to about 20%, if each day is a fresh chance.
September and October
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report an Afflicted Dagger in Dallas on a given day, against under 5% in November to August, the lowest months.
Among the best
Of the 4 cities where we can rate Afflicted Dagger sightings, Dallas ranks 2nd at under 5%, level with the leaders once rounded. The best odds are in Austin (United States, under 5%).
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Afflicted Dagger is recorded against all the insects logged in Dallas (26 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
