Spodoptera cilium
In 3 days ~20% in a week ~30%
Spodoptera cilium, known variously as dark mottled willow, lawn caterpillar and grasslawn armyworm, is a noctuid moth found throughout much of sub-Saharan Africa and western, southern, and south-east Asia and several countries in southern and eastern Europe. It is a migrant to northern Europe and has been recorded at least nine times in the United Kingdom.
The larva feeds on Oryza. It is sometimes a pest. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|
More parks will be added in future updates.
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Dark Mottled Willow sighting in Lisbon on a given day, based on 39 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 97th most-seen of the 441 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 20%, and over a week to about 30%, if each day is a fresh chance.
August to November
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Dark Mottled Willow in Lisbon on a given day, against under 5% in December to July, the lowest months.
Between 4 and 7 pm
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Dark Mottled Willow sightings with a recorded time, and about 8 in 10 of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is mostly seen at night.
Among the best
Of the 6 cities where we can rate Dark Mottled Willow sightings, Lisbon ranks 4th at about 10%, level with the leaders once rounded. The best odds are in Harare (Zimbabwe, about 10%), Porto (Portugal, about 10%) and Rome (Italy, about 10%).
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Dark Mottled Willow is recorded against all the insects logged in Lisbon (39 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
