Hoplodrina octogenaria
In 3 days ~30% in a week ~60%
Hoplodrina octogenaria, the uncertain, is a moth of the family Noctuidae. It is found in the Palearctic realm (Europe, Russia, Turkey, Transcaucasia, Siberia, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Altai, north Mongolia, North Korea, and north China). Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vanoise National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 2 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 3 | Wadden Sea National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | London | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 3 | Manchester | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 4 | Birmingham | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 5 | Helsinki | 🇫🇮 Finland | |
| 6 | Moscow | 🇷🇺 Russia |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a The Uncertain sighting in Liverpool on a given day, based on 38 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 195th most-seen of the 632 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 30%, and over a week to about 60%, if each day is a fresh chance.
June and July
In those months about 20% of wildlife watchers report a The Uncertain in Liverpool on a given day, against under 5% in August to May, the lowest months.
Between 11 pm and 2 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most The Uncertain sightings with a recorded time, and about 8 in 10 of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is mostly seen at night.
Yes
Of the 6 cities where we can rate The Uncertain sightings, Liverpool has the highest daily chance: about 10%. Next come London (United Kingdom, about 10%) and Manchester (United Kingdom, about 10%).
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the The Uncertain is recorded against all the insects logged in Liverpool (38 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
