Conistra rubiginea
In 3 days ~10% in a week ~20%
Conistra rubiginea, the dotted chestnut, is a moth of the family Noctuidae. The species was first described by Michael Denis and Ignaz Schiffermüller in 1775. It is distributed in Europe and, according to William Warren, Armenia and Asia Minor. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 2 | Pyrénées National Park | 🇫🇷 France |
Rare
Under 5% of wildlife watchers report a Dotted Chestnut sighting in London on a given day, based on 11 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 1005th most-seen of the 1504 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 10%, and over a week to about 20%, if each day is a fresh chance.
March and April
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Dotted Chestnut in London on a given day, against under 5% in May to February, the lowest months.
Between 9 pm and midnight
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Dotted Chestnut sightings with a recorded time, and about 7 in 10 of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is mostly seen at night.
Among the best
Of the 3 cities where we can rate Dotted Chestnut sightings, London ranks 2nd at under 5%, level with the leaders once rounded. The best odds are in Prague (Czechia, under 5%).
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Dotted Chestnut is recorded against all the insects logged in London (11 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
