Mythimna impura
In 3 days ~20% in a week ~40%
Mythimna impura, the smoky wainscot, is a moth of the family Noctuidae. The species was first described by Jacob Hübner in 1808. It is distributed throughout most of the Palearctic realm from Ireland in the west of Europe east to the Caucasus, Turkey, Syria, Kazakhstan, Russia, Siberia, Mongolia, then Japan. In Europe it is found from the Arctic Circle to Spain and Italy (including Sicily) in the south, as well as in the northern regions of Greece.
As with other "wainscots", this species has buffish yellow forewings with prominent venation. The smoky wainscot has a dark basal streak with another shorter streak nearer to the costa and tornus. This species has grey hindwings with white margins. The wingspan is 31–38 mm.
Forewing ochreous, with a rufous tinge; veins, especially the median, whiter, lined by fine brown streaks, which also appear in the interspaces; a dark shade below median nervure; a black clot at lower angle of cell; outer row of dots shown only by those on veins 2 and 5; hindwing dull grey. - ab. dungana Alph., from Turkestan and Tibet, is a darker, more fuscous, form in which the dark streaks become obscured; - ab. transbaikalensis... Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cairngorms National Park | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 3 | Wadden Sea National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Manchester | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 3 | Birmingham | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 4 | Leeds | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 5 | London | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 6 | Helsinki | 🇫🇮 Finland | |
| 7 | Moscow | 🇷🇺 Russia |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Smoky Wainscot sighting in Manchester on a given day, based on 16 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 207th most-seen of the 458 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 20%, and over a week to about 40%, if each day is a fresh chance.
June to August
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Smoky Wainscot in Manchester on a given day, against under 5% in September to May, the lowest months.
Between 10 pm and 1 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Smoky Wainscot sightings with a recorded time, and about 6 in 10 of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is seen both by day and at night.
Among the best
Of the 7 cities where we can rate Smoky Wainscot sightings, Manchester ranks 2nd at about 10%, level with the leaders once rounded. The best odds are in Liverpool (United Kingdom, about 10%).
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Smoky Wainscot is recorded against all the insects logged in Manchester (16 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
