Abrostola tripartita
In 3 days ~10% in a week ~30%
Abrostola tripartita (the spectacle) is a moth of the family Noctuidae. It is found throughout much of the Palearctic realm, including most of Europe (except for Iceland), as well as Russia, Siberia, the Amur region, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Snowdonia National Park | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom |
More parks will be added in future updates.
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Birmingham | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 3 | London | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 4 | Manchester | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 5 | Nizhny Novgorod | 🇷🇺 Russia |
Rare
Under 5% of wildlife watchers report a The Spectacle sighting in Manchester on a given day, based on 8 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 320th most-seen of the 458 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 10%, and over a week to about 30%, if each day is a fresh chance.
June and July
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a The Spectacle in Manchester on a given day, against under 5% in August to May, the lowest months.
Between 8 and 11 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most The Spectacle sightings with a recorded time, and about 9 in 10 of them come between 6 am and 6 pm: it is a daytime animal.
4th of 5
Of the 5 cities where we can rate The Spectacle sightings, Manchester ranks 4th at under 5%. The best odds are in Liverpool (United Kingdom, about 20%), Birmingham (United Kingdom, about 10%) and London (United Kingdom, about 10%).
Same family: Noctuidae
The closest relatives of the The Spectacle that you can see in Manchester (family Noctuidae, Cutworm Moths and Allies) are Large Yellow Underwing (about 30%), Angle Shades (about 20%) and Silver Υ (about 20%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the The Spectacle is recorded against all the insects logged in Manchester (8 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
