Hoplodrina octogenaria
In 3 days ~10%
Hoplodrina octogenaria, the uncertain, is a moth of the family Noctuidae. It is found in the Palearctic realm (Europe, Russia, Turkey, Transcaucasia, Siberia, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Altai, north Mongolia, North Korea, and north China). Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vanoise National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 2 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 3 | Wadden Sea National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | London | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 3 | Manchester | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 4 | Birmingham | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 5 | Helsinki | 🇫🇮 Finland | |
| 6 | Moscow | 🇷🇺 Russia |
Rare
Under 5% of wildlife watchers report a The Uncertain sighting in Moscow on a given day, based on 8 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 774th most-seen of the 1111 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 10%, if each day is a fresh chance.
Any time of year
In every month with enough records, under 5% of wildlife watchers report a The Uncertain in Moscow on a given day, so our monthly data shows no clear season.
Between 11 pm and 2 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most The Uncertain sightings with a recorded time, and about 8 in 10 of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is mostly seen at night.
6th of 6
Of the 6 cities where we can rate The Uncertain sightings, Moscow ranks 6th at under 5%. The best odds are in Liverpool (United Kingdom, about 10%), London (United Kingdom, about 10%) and Manchester (United Kingdom, about 10%).
Same family: Noctuidae
The closest relatives of the The Uncertain that you can see in Moscow (family Noctuidae, Cutworm Moths and Allies) are Large Yellow Underwing (about 10%), Sycamore Moth (about 10%) and Silver Υ (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the The Uncertain is recorded against all the insects logged in Moscow (8 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
