Cosmia trapezina
In 3 days ~10% in a week ~30%
The dun-bar (Cosmia trapezina) is a moth of the family Noctuidae. It is a common Palearctic species. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Snowdonia National Park | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 3 | Pyrénées National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 4 | Wadden Sea National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 5 | Cévennes National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 6 | Sierra de Guadarrama National Park | 🇪🇸 Spain |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Kharkiv | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | |
| 3 | London | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 4 | Sofia | 🇧🇬 Bulgaria | |
| 5 | Birmingham | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 6 | Manchester | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 7 | Helsinki | 🇫🇮 Finland | |
| 8 | Kyiv | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | |
| 9 | Berlin | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 10 | Essen | 🇩🇪 Germany |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Dun-Bar sighting in Moscow on a given day, based on 108 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 93rd most-seen of the 1111 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 10%, and over a week to about 30%, if each day is a fresh chance.
July and August
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Dun-Bar in Moscow on a given day, against under 5% in September to June, the lowest months.
Between 10 pm and 1 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Dun-Bar sightings with a recorded time, and about 6 in 10 of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is seen both by day and at night.
13th of 21
Of the 21 cities where we can rate Dun-Bar sightings, Moscow ranks 13th at about 10%. The best odds are in Liverpool (United Kingdom, about 20%), Kharkiv (Ukraine, about 10%) and London (United Kingdom, about 10%).
Same family: Noctuidae
The closest relatives of the Dun-Bar that you can see in Moscow (family Noctuidae, Cutworm Moths and Allies) are Large Yellow Underwing (about 10%), Sycamore Moth (about 10%) and Silver Υ (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Dun-Bar is recorded against all the insects logged in Moscow (108 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
