Nymphalis xanthomelas
In 3 days ~30% in a week ~50%
Nymphalis xanthomelas, the scarce tortoiseshell, is a species of nymphalid butterfly found in eastern Europe and Asia. This butterfly is also referred as yellow-legged tortoiseshell or large tortoiseshell (however, in Europe, "large tortoiseshell" is usually reserved for Nymphalis polychloros).
Upperside rich orange yellow, forewing has costal margin dusky black on the basal half flecked with brown; two oval black spots in cell, a quadrate subcostal black patch just beyond the discocellulars, a second more oblique irregular black patch beyond this, and three large oval discal black spots, with a smaller dusky patch beyond the lowest spot. Hindwing uniform, with a large subcostal black patch. Forewings and hindwings with a common sinuous transverse subterminal black band, and a terminal dusky band flecked with golden brown; the black subterminal band on the hindwing with an outer border of blue lunules margined outwardly by a slender black line; the forewing just below the costa, between the black patches beyond the cell and between the outer black patch and subterminal band, prominently pale yellow. In the female, an incomplete series of yellow lunules also borders... Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biebrza National Park | 🇵🇱 Poland | |
| 2 | Taroko National Park | 🇹🇼 Taiwan |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nizhny Novgorod | 🇷🇺 Russia | |
| 2 | Novosibirsk | 🇷🇺 Russia | |
| 3 | Moscow | 🇷🇺 Russia | |
| 4 | Kazan | 🇷🇺 Russia | |
| 5 | Nagoya | 🇯🇵 Japan | |
| 6 | Almaty | 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan | |
| 7 | Yekaterinburg | 🇷🇺 Russia | |
| 8 | Helsinki | 🇫🇮 Finland | |
| 9 | Saint Petersburg | 🇷🇺 Russia | |
| 10 | Kyiv | 🇺🇦 Ukraine |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Scarce Tortoiseshell sighting in Nagoya on a given day, based on 5 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 166th most-seen of the 195 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 30%, and over a week to about 50%, if each day is a fresh chance.
May
In that month about 30% of wildlife watchers report a Scarce Tortoiseshell in Nagoya on a given day, against under 5% in July to March, the lowest months.
Between 9 am and noon
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Scarce Tortoiseshell sightings with a recorded time, and about 9 in 10 of them come between 6 am and 6 pm: it is a daytime animal.
5th of 11
Of the 11 cities where we can rate Scarce Tortoiseshell sightings, Nagoya ranks 5th at about 10%. The best odds are in Nizhny Novgorod (Russia, about 20%), Novosibirsk (Russia, about 10%) and Moscow (Russia, about 10%).
Same family: Nymphalidae
The closest relatives of the Scarce Tortoiseshell that you can see in Nagoya (family Nymphalidae, Brush-footed Butterflies) are Tropical Fritillary (about 40%), Red Ring Skirt (about 20%) and Asian Comma (about 20%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Scarce Tortoiseshell is recorded against all the insects logged in Nagoya (5 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
