Hestina persimilis
In 3 days ~40% in a week ~70%
Hestina persimilis, the siren, is an East Palearctic species of siren butterfly (Apaturinae) found in western China, Simla to Assam, Orissa. The larva feeds on Celtis australis. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|
More parks will be added in future updates.
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Siren sighting in Nagoya on a given day, based on 11 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 96th most-seen of the 195 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 40%, and over a week to about 70%, if each day is a fresh chance.
July
In that month about 30% of wildlife watchers report a Siren in Nagoya on a given day, against under 5% in June and October–April, the lowest months. That is one of Nagoya's wettest months, with about 230 mm of rain against 75 mm in January.
3rd of 9
Of the 9 cities where we can rate Siren sightings, Nagoya ranks 3rd at about 10%. The best odds are in Hefei (China, about 20%) and Nanjing (China, about 20%).
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Siren is recorded against all the insects logged in Nagoya (11 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
