Danaus erippus
In 3 days ~30% in a week ~50%
Danaus erippus, the southern monarch, is a milkweed butterfly (subfamily Danainae) in the family Nymphalidae. It is one of the best known butterflies in South America. Its genome is nearly identical to D. plexippus, but the two are incompatible, and therefore considered separate species.
Danaus erippus is included with other Nymphalidae, the largest family of butterflies with about 6000 species distributed throughout most of the world. It has a reduced pair of forelegs, is brightly coloured, and is included with popular species such as the emperors, admirals, tortoiseshells, and fritillaries. Its wingspan reaches about 110 millimetres (4.3 in), with an easily recognizable orange and black pattern. Until 2007, this butterfly was treated as a subspecies of Danaus plexippus. These species are very similar, but D. erippus usually has an orange trailing edge of the forewings, while in D. plexippus it is black. The lineages of the two species are thought to have separated about 2 million years ago. The colour of the wings in males of the southern monarch is paler than in the females.
Though, not as well known as the eastern North American monarch migratory... Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Palmar National Park | 🇦🇷 Argentina | |
| 2 | Iberá National Park | 🇦🇷 Argentina |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cochabamba | 🇧🇴 Bolivia | |
| 2 | Rosario | 🇦🇷 Argentina | |
| 3 | Buenos Aires | 🇦🇷 Argentina | |
| 4 | São Luís | 🇧🇷 Brazil | |
| 5 | Montevideo | 🇺🇾 Uruguay | |
| 6 | Fortaleza | 🇧🇷 Brazil | |
| 7 | Porto Alegre | 🇧🇷 Brazil | |
| 8 | Santa Cruz de la Sierra | 🇧🇴 Bolivia | |
| 9 | Curitiba | 🇧🇷 Brazil | |
| 10 | Belém | 🇧🇷 Brazil |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Southern Monarch sighting in São Paulo on a given day, based on 142 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 48th most-seen of the 832 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 30%, and over a week to about 50%, if each day is a fresh chance.
January and February
In those months about 20% of wildlife watchers report a Southern Monarch in São Paulo on a given day, against under 5% in July and October, the lowest months. Those are among São Paulo's wettest months, with about 200 mm of rain a month against 35 mm in August.
Between noon and 3 pm
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Southern Monarch sightings with a recorded time, and about 9 in 10 of them come between 6 am and 6 pm: it is a daytime animal.
13th of 15
Of the 15 cities where we can rate Southern Monarch sightings, São Paulo ranks 13th at about 10%. The best odds are in Cochabamba (Bolivia, about 40%), Rosario (Argentina, about 40%) and Buenos Aires (Argentina, about 30%).
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Southern Monarch is recorded against all the insects logged in São Paulo (142 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
