Caradrina clavipalpis
In 3 days ~30% in a week ~50%
Caradrina clavipalpis, the pale mottled willow is a moth of the family Noctuidae. The species was first described by Giovanni Antonio Scopoli in his 1763 Entomologia Carniolica. It is found in the Palearctic realm (Europe, Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Kuwait, Russia, Central Asia, Mongolia, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, north-west India, and Sri Lanka). It is an introduced species in North America, where it was first reported from Queens in New York City in 1993. In 2009 it was found in Rochester, New York, so it appears to be established and spreading.
The wingspan is 26–35 mm. The length of the forewings is 12–15 mm. Forewing pale to dark grey with darker dusting and sometimes tinged with ochreous; the terminal area generally fuscous; the lines starting from black costal spots; the inner and outer double, blackish, the inner minutely waved, the outer dentate; subterminal line pale, waved, preceded by a grey shade with dentate rufous marks in it; stigmata small, fuscous, the orbicular rounded, the reniform a narrow lunule, with two white dots on its inner edge and three on outer; hindwing white, the veins and termen dark grey; — in laciniosa Donz... Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sierra Nevada National Park | 🇪🇸 Spain |
More parks will be added in future updates.
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Pale Mottled Willow Moth sighting in Sierra Nevada National Park on a given day, based on 10 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data from 2019 to 2026. It is the 240th most-seen of the 479 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 30%, and over a week to about 50%, if each day is a fresh chance.
April and June
In those months about 20% of wildlife watchers report a Pale Mottled Willow Moth in Sierra Nevada National Park on a given day, against under 5% in July–August and October–March, the lowest months.
Between 9 pm and midnight
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Pale Mottled Willow Moth sightings with a recorded time, and nearly all of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is mostly seen at night.
Only Sierra Nevada National Park, in our data
Sierra Nevada National Park is the only park on Wallace's Line with enough records to rate Pale Mottled Willow Moth sightings: about 10% of wildlife watchers there report one on a given day.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Pale Mottled Willow Moth is recorded against all the insects logged in Sierra Nevada National Park (10 verified sightings from 2019 to 2026), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
