Nola confusalis
In 3 days ~30% in a week ~60%
Nola confusalis, the least black arches, is a moth of the family Nolidae. It is found in most of Europe, east to eastern Asia and Japan. The wingspan is 16–18 mm. Adults are on wing from mid April to mid June in one generation in western Europe.
The larvae mainly feed on various deciduous trees and bushes, including lime (Tilia species) and evergreen oak (Quercus ilex). Larvae can be found from June to August. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Snowdonia National Park | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Cairngorms National Park | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 3 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 4 | Pyrénées National Park | 🇫🇷 France |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Liverpool | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 3 | London | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 4 | Paris | 🇫🇷 France |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Least Black Arches sighting in Snowdonia National Park on a given day, based on 15 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data from 2019 to 2026. It is the 149th most-seen of the 387 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 30%, and over a week to about 60%, if each day is a fresh chance.
April
In that month about 30% of wildlife watchers report a Least Black Arches in Snowdonia National Park on a given day, against under 5% in July to March, the lowest months. That is one of Snowdonia National Park's driest months, with about 95 mm of rain against 240 mm in December.
Between 9 pm and midnight
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Least Black Arches sightings with a recorded time, and about 6 in 10 of them come between 6 am and 6 pm: it is seen both by day and at night.
Yes
Of the 4 parks where we can rate Least Black Arches sightings, Snowdonia National Park has the highest daily chance: about 10%. Next come Cairngorms National Park (United Kingdom, about 10%) and Bavarian Forest National Park (Germany, about 10%).
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Least Black Arches is recorded against all the insects logged in Snowdonia National Park (15 verified sightings from 2019 to 2026), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
