Hoplodrina octogenaria
In 3 days ~30% in a week ~50%
Hoplodrina octogenaria, the uncertain, is a moth of the family Noctuidae. It is found in the Palearctic realm (Europe, Russia, Turkey, Transcaucasia, Siberia, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Altai, north Mongolia, North Korea, and north China). Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vanoise National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 2 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 3 | Wadden Sea National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | London | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 3 | Manchester | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 4 | Birmingham | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 5 | Helsinki | 🇫🇮 Finland | |
| 6 | Moscow | 🇷🇺 Russia |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a The Uncertain sighting in Vanoise National Park on a given day, based on 8 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data from 2019 to 2026. It is the 252nd most-seen of the 308 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 30%, and over a week to about 50%, if each day is a fresh chance.
July
In that month about 20% of wildlife watchers report a The Uncertain in Vanoise National Park on a given day, against under 5% in August to June, the lowest months.
Between 11 pm and 2 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most The Uncertain sightings with a recorded time, and about 8 in 10 of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is mostly seen at night.
Yes
Of the 3 parks where we can rate The Uncertain sightings, Vanoise National Park has the highest daily chance: about 10%. Next come Bavarian Forest National Park (Germany, about 10%) and Wadden Sea National Park (Germany, under 5%).
Same family: Noctuidae
The closest relatives of the The Uncertain that you can see in Vanoise National Park (family Noctuidae, Cutworm Moths and Allies) are Brown-Line Bright-Eye (about 10%), Pale Shining Brown (about 10%) and Sweet Gale Moth (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the The Uncertain is recorded against all the insects logged in Vanoise National Park (8 verified sightings from 2019 to 2026), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
