Hoplodrina octogenaria
In 3 days ~10% in a week ~30%
Hoplodrina octogenaria, the uncertain, is a moth of the family Noctuidae. It is found in the Palearctic realm (Europe, Russia, Turkey, Transcaucasia, Siberia, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Altai, north Mongolia, North Korea, and north China). Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vanoise National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 2 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 3 | Wadden Sea National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | London | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 3 | Manchester | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 4 | Birmingham | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 5 | Helsinki | 🇫🇮 Finland | |
| 6 | Moscow | 🇷🇺 Russia |
Rare
Under 5% of wildlife watchers report a The Uncertain sighting in Wadden Sea National Park on a given day, based on 16 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data from 2019 to 2026. It is the 422nd most-seen of the 818 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 10%, and over a week to about 30%, if each day is a fresh chance.
June and July
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a The Uncertain in Wadden Sea National Park on a given day, against under 5% in August to May, the lowest months.
Between 11 pm and 2 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most The Uncertain sightings with a recorded time, and about 8 in 10 of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is mostly seen at night.
3rd of 3
Of the 3 parks where we can rate The Uncertain sightings, Wadden Sea National Park ranks 3rd at under 5%. The best odds are in Vanoise National Park (France, about 10%) and Bavarian Forest National Park (Germany, about 10%).
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the The Uncertain is recorded against all the insects logged in Wadden Sea National Park (16 verified sightings from 2019 to 2026), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
