Yponomeuta plumbella
In 3 days ~20% in a week ~30%
Yponomeuta plumbella is a moth from the family Yponomeutidae, the ermine moths. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wadden Sea National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 2 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamburg | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 2 | Rotterdam [The Hague] | 🇳🇱 Netherlands |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Black-Tipped Ermine sighting in Bavarian Forest National Park on a given day, based on 8 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data from 2019 to 2026. It is the 661st most-seen of the 1115 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 20%, and over a week to about 30%, if each day is a fresh chance.
June to August
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Black-Tipped Ermine in Bavarian Forest National Park on a given day, against under 5% in September to May, the lowest months.
Between 11 pm and 2 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Black-Tipped Ermine sightings with a recorded time, and about 6 in 10 of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is seen both by day and at night.
Among the best
Of the 2 parks where we can rate Black-Tipped Ermine sightings, Bavarian Forest National Park ranks 2nd at about 10%, level with the leaders once rounded. The best odds are in Wadden Sea National Park (Germany, about 10%).
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Black-Tipped Ermine is recorded against all the insects logged in Bavarian Forest National Park (8 verified sightings from 2019 to 2026), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
