Nola confusalis
In 3 days ~20% in a week ~40%
Nola confusalis, the least black arches, is a moth of the family Nolidae. It is found in most of Europe, east to eastern Asia and Japan. The wingspan is 16–18 mm. Adults are on wing from mid April to mid June in one generation in western Europe.
The larvae mainly feed on various deciduous trees and bushes, including lime (Tilia species) and evergreen oak (Quercus ilex). Larvae can be found from June to August. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Snowdonia National Park | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Cairngorms National Park | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 3 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 4 | Pyrénées National Park | 🇫🇷 France |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Liverpool | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 3 | London | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 4 | Paris | 🇫🇷 France |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Least Black Arches sighting in Bavarian Forest National Park on a given day, based on 13 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data from 2019 to 2026. It is the 523rd most-seen of the 1115 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 20%, and over a week to about 40%, if each day is a fresh chance.
April
In that month about 20% of wildlife watchers report a Least Black Arches in Bavarian Forest National Park on a given day, against under 5% in June to March, the lowest months.
Between 9 pm and midnight
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Least Black Arches sightings with a recorded time, and about 6 in 10 of them come between 6 am and 6 pm: it is seen both by day and at night.
Among the best
Of the 4 parks where we can rate Least Black Arches sightings, Bavarian Forest National Park ranks 3rd at about 10%, level with the leaders once rounded. The best odds are in Snowdonia National Park (United Kingdom, about 10%) and Cairngorms National Park (United Kingdom, about 10%).
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Least Black Arches is recorded against all the insects logged in Bavarian Forest National Park (13 verified sightings from 2019 to 2026), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
