Cerastis rubricosa
In 3 days ~10% in a week ~30%
Cerastis rubricosa, the red chestnut, is a moth of the family Noctuidae. The species was first described by Michael Denis and Ignaz Schiffermüller in 1775. It is found in most of Europe, east through the temperate regions of the Palearctic east to Japan. In the north it is found just north of the Arctic Circle. Southward it is found up to the Mediterranean Basin and Turkey.
The wingspan is 32–38 millimetres (1.3–1.5 in), the forewings are red brown, varied with grey, sometimes with a purplish-brown tinge; stigmata grey with fine dark outlines; a broad angled median shade; lines all starting from black costal spots; hindwing fuscous grey; fringe grey. Generally distributed in Europe, except Spain, and found in western Siberia and western Turkestan. The form rufa Haw., the usual British form, is almost wholly rufous, and the fringe pink. - mucida Esp. is dark purplish red with the costa and subterminal shade slaty grey; - pilicornis Brahm has the red ground almost obliterated by grey suffusion, the crosslines brownish; of this pallida Tutt is merely an extreme pale form; finally, mista Hbn. is brick red with costa, crosslines, and outer margin grey.
Adults... Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Snowdonia National Park | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Wadden Sea National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 3 | Cairngorms National Park | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 4 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 5 | Pyrénées National Park | 🇫🇷 France |
Rare
Under 5% of wildlife watchers report a Red Chestnut sighting in Bavarian Forest National Park on a given day, based on 5 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data from 2019 to 2026. It is the 964th most-seen of the 1115 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 10%, and over a week to about 30%, if each day is a fresh chance.
March and April
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Red Chestnut in Bavarian Forest National Park on a given day, against under 5% in May to February, the lowest months.
Between 6 and 9 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Red Chestnut sightings with a recorded time, and about 7 in 10 of them come between 6 am and 6 pm: it is most active around dawn and dusk.
4th of 5
Of the 5 parks where we can rate Red Chestnut sightings, Bavarian Forest National Park ranks 4th at under 5%. The best odds are in Snowdonia National Park (United Kingdom, about 10%), Wadden Sea National Park (Germany, about 10%) and Cairngorms National Park (United Kingdom, about 10%).
Same family: Noctuidae
The closest relatives of the Red Chestnut that you can see in Bavarian Forest National Park (family Noctuidae, Cutworm Moths and Allies) are Silver Υ (about 20%), Knot Grass Moth (about 20%) and Large Yellow Underwing (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Red Chestnut is recorded against all the insects logged in Bavarian Forest National Park (5 verified sightings from 2019 to 2026), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
